Prognostic tool to estimate surgical atherosclerotic risk

Abstract

Introduction: the active approach to the prevention of cardiovascular diseases is mainly based on the fact that these constitute the main cause of premature death in most developed countries.
Objective: determine the prognostic efficacy of the atherosclerotic risk tool.
Methods: an analytical study was conducted of atherosclerotic risk factors in 1 926 patients proposed for elective non-cardiac surgery at Manuel Ascunce Domenech University Hospital in the province of Camagüey from September 2007 to September 2010. A model was developed based on multivariate analysis and binary logistic regression. The probability that an individual will have the disease is obtained by substituting into the model the value of each one of the factors. A calculation was made of the best point of coincidence allowing to classify individuals as potentially healthy or ill using the ROC (ratio odd curve) procedure.
Results: the risk factors associated were the following: smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, obesity and a sedentary lifestyle, and as a protective factor: female sex.
Conclusions: determination was made of the efficacy of the tool for computerized support, providing specialists with a reliable prognosis about atherosclerotic risk patients scheduled for surgery.